Mental Models for Better Decisions

They replace the need for data or evidence

They guarantee perfect predictions about the future

They simplify complexity by providing reusable thinking patterns

They make decisions faster by eliminating reflection

Fixed mindset that ties worth to talent

Learning mindset that focuses on iteration and feedback

Stoic mindset that suppresses emotion entirely

Perfectionist mindset demanding flawless outcomes

Ignore all contradictory information

Double down on the most recent source

Rely only on your first intuition

Check for alternative explanations and seek disconfirming data

Study diverse domains and practice transferring ideas between them

Memorize lists of rules without application

Wait until expertise arrives before experimenting

Focus narrowly on one textbook and never compare other fields

Ignore minor issues until a deadline forces action

Assume small mistakes are inevitable and do nothing

Build redundancy and check early with small experiments

Delay testing until full implementation

By delegating all risk assessment to others

By only imagining best-case scenarios

By postponing risk discussion until after decisions

By asking what would cause failure first, then avoiding those causes

Creativity always requires complete solitude

Creativity needs large budgets to begin

Only artists can be creative

Creativity is solely innate and can't be practiced

Always pick the most complex explanation

Prefer the explanation that best accounts for the evidence and has fewer assumptions

Favor the explanation you heard most recently

Select whichever explanation is most flattering